The global cut-flower industry, whose supply chain depends on a handful of regions with distinct climate advantages, is being forced to adapt as rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and energy costs threaten the very conditions that made those regions dominant.
From East Africa’s high-altitude sunshine to South America’s equatorial stability and the Netherlands’ greenhouse infrastructure, each major flower-growing hub is confronting a different climate-driven vulnerability. The result is an industry scrambling to protect a highly perishable, low-margin product from increasingly volatile weather.
East Africa: Water Scarcity Threatens Kenya’s Rose Dominance
Kenya, the world’s fourth-largest cut-flower exporter and supplier of roughly one-third of all roses sold in the European Union, centers its floriculture around Lake Naivasha. The lake’s high altitude, abundant sunshine, and reliable water once made it ideal year-round. But recurring droughts have intensified competition for water among flower farms, fishing communities, and food producers.
Industry analysts now consider secure water access—not land, labor, or logistics—the single biggest long-term risk to Kenya’s flower sector. Neighboring Ethiopia, a fast-growing producer supplying about 2% of the global market, faces similar pressures. Its floriculture industry supports over 100,000 jobs, mostly for women, but rests on the same combination of high water demand and climate volatility. Both countries are investing in efficient irrigation and water recycling to protect a vital source of foreign revenue.
South America: Logistics and Water Stress in the Andes
Colombia, the world’s largest cut-flower producer, exports hundreds of millions of stems annually, mostly to the United States. Farms cluster near Bogotá’s airport to minimize transit time—flowers can lose 15% of value for each extra day in shipping. Any weather disruption to harvesting or air freight has outsized impact.
Ecuador, known for its large, high-altitude roses grown in industrial greenhouses, relies on intensive water and chemical inputs. Shifting rainfall patterns compound existing labor and environmental concerns, from pesticide use to competition with indigenous farming communities for water.
Because Colombia and Ecuador dominate flower supply to North America—similar to how Kenya and the Netherlands serve Europe—any sustained climate disruption in the Andes directly affects flower prices and availability around Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day, when supply chains run with almost no slack.
The Netherlands: From Water to Energy Vulnerability
The Netherlands, the world’s largest flower exporter and the re-export hub for African blooms, faces a different challenge: energy. Its cold, cloudy climate requires greenhouse heating and supplemental lighting powered largely by fossil fuels. Studies show roses grown in Dutch greenhouses can generate several times the emissions of outdoor-grown Kenyan roses, even accounting for airfreight.
European climate policy and rising energy costs are now pushing Dutch growers toward geothermal energy, better glazing, and renewables—changes driven as much by economics as by direct weather disruption.
Importing Countries Face Indirect Exposure
The United Kingdom, which imports about 90% of its £2.2 billion cut-flower market, remains heavily exposed to climate disruptions in Kenya and the Netherlands. A recent Nuffield Farming report found UK growers have focused on cutting their own carbon emissions but given little attention to building resilience against extreme heat, flooding, and drought at home.
In the United States, California’s flower industry contends with worsening drought and water restrictions, while the majority of imported flowers come from climate-stressed Colombia and Ecuador. Domestic flower farming, often small-scale and direct-to-consumer, has seen modest resurgence as a lower-carbon, more resilient alternative.
Southern Europe’s ornamental growers, particularly in Spain and Portugal, face water-stress dynamics similar to other water-intensive crops, as droughts become more frequent across the Iberian Peninsula.
A Common Challenge
Despite different climates and economies, flower-growing regions worldwide converge on the same pressures: water scarcity, unpredictable seasons, rising pest pressure, and the high cost of protecting a perishable product. What differs is which pressure dominates—water in East Africa and the Andes, energy in the Netherlands, drought in California and southern Europe.
An industry built on stable climates must now adapt to a world where that stability can no longer be taken for granted. For consumers, this likely means higher prices and reduced availability during peak demand periods, while growers and importers race to build resilience through technology, new growing regions, and local alternatives.